He Promised Cheap Gas and No New Wars. Voters Sent the Bill.

Key Points

• Christina argues gas prices, the Iran war and health costs cost Republicans the 2026 midterms.
• Amy Acton beat Vivek Ramaswamy by 28.6 points in Hamilton County, per unofficial results.
• Antiwar Republican Warren Davidson slipped to about 52%, while Greg Landsman won by 12.

Christina argues Trump’s broken promises on prices and war drove the 2026 midterm rout. Unofficial Hamilton County results show Acton winning the county by 28.6 points, and local races split by party rather than war votes.

Donald Trump has spent two years telling Americans that what they see at the pump and the register isn’t real.

On Tuesday, they answered him.

Democrats took all of Congress in the 2026 midterms. The AP called the House for them early Wednesday, and called the Senate late Tuesday. Republicans took the Senate with a 53-47 majority. At the final count, Democrats had 54 seats after flipping North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, and Maine, where Susan Collins finally lost. Alaska and Mississippi were still too close to call. Democrats also flipped governor’s mansions in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa, and NBC reports they clinched a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years.

Read that list again. Texas. Iowa. South Carolina. Kansas.

Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points two years ago. On Tuesday, James Talarico beat Ken Paxton there, and Gina Hinojosa took out Greg Abbott, who was seeking a fourth term. Republicans still won where you’d expect, including Florida, and a few races are still being counted. But when Florida is the bright spot, the firewall is on fire.

This was no mystery. Trump went against the people who elected him, and they noticed.

He Promised Relief. You Got $4 Gas.

In early January, the AAA national average was $2.81, the lowest in years. As of Nov. 5, it was $4.10. A year earlier, it was about $3.08. That’s $1.02 more per gallon, a 33% increase, or about $15 extra every time you fill a 15-gallon tank.

September was worse. The average hit $4.48 on Sept. 24, the highest ever for that time of year, according to AAA, and the month’s $4.33 average set a September record. The government’s own numbers show gasoline up 34.2% in the 12 months through September, fuel oil up 74.2% and airfares up 22.4%. Overall inflation climbed to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August.

Yes, gas has dipped in recent weeks. It’s a dip from a record, and crude was still above $100 a barrel in late October.

And Trump’s closing message on Election Day? He told Fox News that inflation is “solved.” Voters disagreed. About 6 in 10 told the ABC News Voter Poll they were very concerned about gas prices.

Your Grocery Bill Didn’t Get the Memo

Republicans will wave one number around, so let’s deal with it. Grocery prices rose 1.8% over the 12 months through September, and eggs got cheaper. Fine. Take the win on eggs.

Now look at the rest of the cart. Ground beef is up 5.4%. Coffee is up more than 7%. Seafood is up more than 6%. Fruits and vegetables are up 3.7%. And rising more slowly isn’t the same as coming down. Nobody is leaving Kroger feeling like the crisis ended because the price of hamburger is climbing a little slower.

Trump returned to office promising prosperity and peace. Instead, 75% of Americans said he wasn’t handling inflation well in an August UMass poll, and four in five said the Iran war raised the cost of food and gas. On Tuesday, nearly two-thirds of voters blamed him for high prices, according to exit polls SSRS conducted for a group of news organizations.

Millions Lost Their Coverage While He Bragged

The enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits expired on Dec. 31, 2025, on Republicans’ watch. KFF estimated that premium payments would more than double, up 114%, for subsidized enrollees who kept the same plan. Many couldn’t. People who stayed covered often switched to cheaper plans, and KFF found their deductibles rose 37%, or about $1,000.

Then the bills came due. Marketplace enrollment fell by 2.6 million between February 2025 and February 2026. KFF expects it could fall as low as 17.5 million this year, down from a record 21.8 million in 2025. Federal officials credit a crackdown on improper signups, but KFF points to the expired tax credits. Some of those people found coverage elsewhere, and the data doesn’t yet show how many.

Here’s who else was watching: Ohio saw the largest enrollment drop in the country, according to AP data reported by the Ohio Capital Journal, on top of the Medicaid changes in Trump’s own bill. On Tuesday, Ohio threw out its Republican senator and rejected the Republican candidate for governor. Funny how that works.

“No New Wars”

That promise hurt most because people believed it. Trump ran on no new wars and a focus at home. On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel attacked Iran. By mid-March, 13 American service members were dead and about 200 were wounded.

On Tuesday, 63% of voters told NBC News exit pollsters he made the wrong decision on military action against Iran, and 74% said the war was a crucial or major factor in their vote.

Some on the right, including people inside MAGA, believe Trump put Israel’s priorities ahead of the American people’s. That belief didn’t come from nowhere. Joe Kent, Trump’s own counterterrorism chief and a Green Beret who lost his wife in Syria, resigned in protest. He wrote that the war started because of “pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

That claim is contested. Netanyahu denied dragging America in, and Rep. Don Bacon accused Kent of fueling antisemitism. Argue about it all you want. But here’s the part no one can argue with: one man gave the order, and his name is Donald Trump. Whether someone talked him into it or he walked in on his own, Americans are the ones paying for it at the pump.

Then, on Election Day, with voting already underway, Trump went on Fox News and said he was pulling the money. “By the end of this year, we won’t be paying Israel,” he said, calling the aid “almost too easy a target” for his opponents.

Too little, too late. And read the fine print. He also said, “We’ll help Israel if they need it,” and called Israel a “great ally.” The current aid agreement runs through September 2028, and the Times of Israel called his claim false. Even former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene saw through it: “Amazing how being on the verge of Republicans getting wiped out in the midterms changes hearts and minds.”

Donald Trump campaigned on no new wars and on bringing the focus back to the American people. That was not done, and Republicans saw it.

What He Did to Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie voted against Trump’s big spending bill. He forced the Epstein files into the open with Democrat Ro Khanna. He pushed a war powers resolution that would have forced Congress to go on record on Iran, but it failed 212 to 219. In other words, he did his job.

Trump called him a “moron” at the National Prayer Breakfast. Read that again: at the prayer breakfast. Then came the most expensive House primary in American history, with at least $32 million in ads and more than $7 million from Trump-aligned groups. Massie lost in May. Trump’s reaction: “He deserves to lose.”

He did the same thing in Texas. Trump endorsed Paxton, his loyal ally, over Sen. John Cornyn. Cornyn lost the primary runoff. Then Paxton lost the seat to a Democrat. That’s what loyalty tests buy you.

He Black-Pilled His Own People

The diehards are still there. But diehards alone don’t hold Texas.

Look at everyone else. Reuters/Ipsos found Trump’s Republican approval fell from 86% in January to 73% in September, and approval of his handling of the cost of living dropped 26 points to 44%. UMass found one in six Trump voters wouldn’t vote for him again.

More data is needed to know exactly who stayed home and who switched. But the warning signs flashed for months. The people Trump told to shut up and trust him got tired of it, and Democrats showed up.

Even Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the defeat, according to NPR. That’s his own side talking.

Ohio Saw Right Through Vivek

Vivek Ramaswamy wanted Ohio’s top job. Ohio said no.

The AP called the race for Dr. Amy Acton, who became Ohio’s first woman elected governor and its first Democratic governor in 20 years, despite more than $100 million spent against her. In updated unofficial results, Acton took about 52% and won by nearly 8 points. Sherrod Brown beat Jon Husted by about 5.

Neither candidate had held elected office. The difference is what they’d done with their time. Acton ran Ohio’s health department during the pandemic’s worst early days, on TV, in front of the whole state. Ramaswamy’s fame came from a presidential run and a short stint at DOGE. He grew up in the Cincinnati area, but his public life ran through national politics and business, not Ohio, and Ohioans knew it.

Then he announced a $4 million ad buy featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar. Even Gov. Mike DeWine, who endorsed him, wanted it pulled. The campaign pulled it about a week before the election. If that’s how you ask to lead a state, you deserve the answer you got.

Enough

Enough with the mean tweets, with calling people morons at prayer breakfasts, with treating every Republican who reads a bill or asks a question like a traitor, with publicly thrashing anyone who dares to disagree with Donald Trump.

The presidency is the highest office in this country. It should come with some integrity, some restraint and at least a passing interest in the people paying the bills. Trump told the New York Times he’s “absolutely willing” to accept the results. Then he went on Truth Social and wrote, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” He was on every ballot in America. He was on every gas pump too. Now he can accept the results.

And Democrats, don’t get comfortable. Nobody voted for you on Tuesday because they fell in love. They voted because gas is over $4, groceries still hurt, their insurance costs jumped and their president started a war he swore he wouldn’t. Fix it, or you’re next.

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How the 2026 Midterms Played in Hamilton County

The following section comes from The Cincinnati Exchange, not from the column’s author.

In the 2026 midterms, Hamilton County gave Amy Acton a 28.6-point win over Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican who grew up there. That figure comes from unofficial results posted by the Hamilton County Board of Elections. Statewide, her margin was nearly 8 points.

Hamilton County Election Results, Top of the Ticket

Race	Democrat	Republican	Margin
Governor	Amy Acton, 63.1%	Vivek Ramaswamy, 34.5%	D +28.6
U.S. Senate	Sherrod Brown, 60.5%	Jon Husted, 35.2%	D +25.3
Attorney General	John Kulewicz, 61.6%	Keith Faber, 38.4%	D +23.1
Secretary of State	Allison Russo, 61.2%	Robert Sprague, 36.1%	D +25.1
U.S. House, 1st District (county portion)	Greg Landsman, 64.6%	Eric Conroy, 32.9%	D +31.7
U.S. House, 8th District (county portion)	Vanessa Enoch, 59.8%	Warren Davidson, 40.2%	D +19.5

Those figures come from the board’s final unofficial report on election night, with all 563 precincts counted and turnout at 56%. Libertarian and independent candidates took the remaining votes. Results stay unofficial until certification, which the Ohio Secretary of State expects about three weeks after the election. Voters in the county also approved Issue 10, the children’s services levy, 56.6% to 43.4%.

The Iran War Vote Didn’t Sort Local Races

The column argues that the Iran war was decided Tuesday. The region’s own congressional races complicate that story.

On March 5, the House rejected the Massie-Khanna war powers resolution 212 to 219. Only two Republicans voted for it: Thomas Massie of Northern Kentucky and Warren Davidson, whose 8th District includes part of Hamilton County. Four Democrats voted against it, including Greg Landsman of Cincinnati.

Tuesday’s results ran the other way. Davidson, the antiwar Republican, won with about 52% when the AP called his race. In 2024, under different district lines, he took 62.8%. He also lost the Hamilton County part of his district by nearly 20 points. Landsman, meanwhile, won by 12 points, according to Local 12. Ohio’s 2025 redistricting deal pushed his district into Republican-leaning Warren and Clinton counties, and Inside Elections calculated that Trump would have carried the new lines by 3 points.

Across the river, Republicans held on. Ed Gallrein, the Trump pick who ousted Massie in May, beat Democrat Melissa Strange in Kentucky’s 4th District. Andy Barr won Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat. Democrats’ one local breakthrough came in Covington, where Aaron Currin unseated state Rep. Stephanie Dietz.

Locally, then, voters split by party and by state line far more than by anyone’s war vote. That doesn’t settle why Ohio swung. It does suggest the war worked as part of a broader verdict on Trump and prices, not as a test of each candidate’s record on Iran.

Ohio Polls Missed in a New Direction

An earlier Exchange calculation found that Ohio polls had underestimated Republicans by about 5 points on average since 2014. This year they missed the other way. RealClearPolling’s final average had Brown up 2.8 points, and he won by about 5. In late October, polls had Acton up about 4.4, and she won by nearly 8. One election doesn’t make a new pattern, but readers who discounted Ohio’s Democratic poll leads this fall discounted the wrong side.

FAQs

Who won the 2026 midterms?

Democrats won control of both the House and Senate on Nov. 3, 2026, according to Associated Press race calls. They flipped Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Maine, reaching at least 54 seats. Democrats also flipped governorships in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa, winning a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years.

How did Hamilton County vote in the 2026 midterms?

Hamilton County voted heavily Democratic. Unofficial Board of Elections results show Amy Acton beating Vivek Ramaswamy 63.1% to 34.5% for governor and Sherrod Brown beating Jon Husted 60.5% to 35.2% for Senate. Turnout reached about 56%. Voters also approved Issue 10, the children’s services levy, 56.6% to 43.4%. Results remain unofficial until certification.

Did Greg Landsman win reelection?

Yes. Democrat Greg Landsman defeated Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District by 12 points, according to Local 12, despite a redrawn district that Inside Elections calculated Trump would have carried by 3 points. In the Hamilton County portion of the district, Landsman won 64.6% to 32.9%, according to unofficial county results.

How much did gas prices rise before the 2026 midterms?

The AAA national average was $2.81 in early January 2026 and $4.10 on Nov. 5, about $1.02, or 33%, above a year earlier. Prices peaked at $4.48 on Sept. 24, a record for that time of year. Federal data showed gasoline up 34.2% over the 12 months through September, driving inflation to 3.7%.

Did the Iran war decide local congressional races?

Not cleanly. Warren Davidson, one of two Republicans who voted to limit the Iran war in March, fell to about 52% after taking 62.8% in 2024 on different lines. Greg Landsman, one of four Democrats who voted against that resolution, won by 12 points. Locally, results tracked party and state lines more than war votes.